Key messages
The construction of the 4 scenarios for achieving carbon neutrality in France by 2050 highlights 11 cross-cutting key points.
- The four pathways, each characterised by a consistent approach, enable France to achieve carbon neutrality across its territory by 2050 and reduce its carbon footprint. They rely on varying degrees of human effort (especially S1) and technological progress (especially S4), suggesting that S2 and S3 are more balanced and achievable.
- Sufficiency, which involves questioning our needs and how to fulfil them while reducing their impact on the environment, is the best way to move rapidly towards carbon neutrality while reducing our dependence on fossil fuels. Sufficiency complements energy efficiency and helps to reduce the risks associated with climate change or a major geopolitical crisis such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
- Reducing energy demand, which is itself linked to demand for goods and services, and developing renewable energies are key factors in achieving carbon neutrality. With a reduction in final energy consumption of between 23% and 55% compared to 2015, it is possible to establish an energy supply made up of more than 70% renewable energies (RE) in all the scenarios. The share of electricity increases significantly in all cases.
- The carbon footprint (all greenhouse gases– GHGs) is lower in 2050 for all scenarios than it was in 2015. The materials footprint also falls in S1, S2 and S3, and is at the 2015 level for S4.
However, reductions in footprints are insufficient to achieve a trajectory that limits the rise in the planet’s average temperature to +2°C, which would require GHG emissions to stabilise at an average of around 2tCO2eq per capita worldwide in 2050. - Pressures on the environment increase from S1 to S4 and the environmental impacts are very different from one scenario to another. This is particularly the case for the cumulative quantity of GHGs over the thirty years of the exercise, but also for irrigation water, land take and atmospheric pollutants.
Achieving carbon neutrality at a territorial level by 2050 should not therefore be the only window of analysis and highlights the co-benefits of sufficiency, which reduces the various environmental pressures - In the four scenarios, industry is transformed not only to adapt to radically changing demand but also to decarbonise its production. This will require large-scale investment plans, including an increase in recycling, and an effort by society as a whole to support changing regions and train workers in new professions.
- Our ability to adapt to climate change depends on the scenario: S1 and S2 appear more robust due to their energy sufficiency, whereas S4 seems riskier, with a very high consumption of resources. But in all the scenarios, it is water resources that become the central element in our ability to adapt.
- The biosphere is one of the main assets in this transition, combining three strategic levers: carbon storage, biomass production and greenhouse gas reduction. It is therefore essential to maintain a balance between food and energy uses of biomass, while preserving ecological functions such as biodiversity and carbon storage through a comprehensive approach to the bioeconomy.
- Adapting forests and agriculture is becoming an absolute priority in the fight against climate change. The resilience of ecosystems is all the more crucial given that they are increasingly subject to the impacts of climate change. The extreme events already observed could lead to the collapse of certain natural environments and call into question the feasibility of all the scenarios.
- With the assumptions adopted, none of the scenarios, including those that involve major sufficiency, lead to a long-term economic recession compared to the current level of economic activity: three of the four scenarios even result in a higher level of activity in 2050 than the BAU scenario.
- Social justice and transparency are at the heart of citizens’ demands. They expect efforts to be shared equitably between all actors, including economic actors, and for the state to play a leading role. A renewal of democratic decision-making processes and the ways in which citizens participate is also required.
