Futures in transition
©S. Kiehl
Carbon neutrality by 2050 is now part of the common language. While its definition is more or less accepted, the path to achieve it remains unclear, if not totally unknown, for most decision-makers and citizens.
In order to facilitate the transition to action, ADEME has therefore carried out an unprecedented foresight exercise based on two years of development work. The aim of this scriptwriting exercise is to help bring together elements of technical, economic and social knowledge.
This work proposes four coherent and contrasting “standard” paths, to lead France towards carbon neutrality by 2050. It highlights major lessons and raises issues that can feed into debates on possible and desirable options.
The first edition of this foresight exercise was published in November 2021. Since then, this work has been supplemented by fifteen special reports. In response to the rapidly changing consequences of climate change and the energy situation in Europe, ADEME unveiled an updated version of Transition(s) 2050 in March 2024, with the publication of new special reports and an updated summary and executive summary of its work, which complement the conclusions reached in 2021, including in particular a risk analysis that specifies the conditions and impacts of each scenario.
Download the documents presenting the complete foresight exercise (several formats available)
The scenarios
Four contrasting scenarios in which France reaches carbon neutrality
Forecast for mainland France, the paths are based on the same macroeconomic, demographic and climate change data (+2.1°C in 2100). They take different routes and correspond to different societal choices, but all lead to carbon neutrality.
Key messages
11 key points common to all scenarios
The exploration of the four scenarios for achieving carbon neutrality in France by 2050 highlights 11 cross-cutting key points.
Issues for debate
Six issues for structuring debates
Looking ahead does not mean we cannot take a step back. In all the scenarios to achieve carbon neutrality, we review six issues that will need to be debated.
