Futures in transition

Transition(s) 2050, Decide now, Act for climate

©S. Kiehl

Carbon neutrality by 2050 is now part of the common language. While its definition is more or less accepted, the path to achieve it remains unclear, if not totally unknown, for most decision-makers and citizens.

In order to facilitate the transition to action, ADEME has therefore carried out an unprecedented foresight exercise based on two years of development work.  The aim of this scriptwriting exercise is to help bring together elements of technical, economic and social knowledge.

This work proposes four coherent and contrasting “standard” paths, to lead France towards carbon neutrality by 2050. It highlights major lessons and raises issues that can feed into debates on possible and desirable options.

The scenarios

Four coherent and contrasting “typical” paths to lead France towards carbon neutrality.

Imagined for metropolitan France, these paths are based on the same macroeconomic, demographic and climate change data (+2.1 °C in 2100). They follow different channels and correspond to different societal choices, but all lead to carbon neutrality.

Key messages

The development of the 4 scenarios for achieving carbon neutrality in France in 2050 highlights 9 major cross-cutting lessons.

Issues for debate

The foresight work carried out does not avoid taking a step back. Whatever the scenario chosen to achieve carbon neutrality, ADEME has put into perspective 5 issues that will have to be the subject of structuring debates.